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	AccuScore Game Forecasts
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San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Average Forecasted Score: Chargers 19.1 Steelers 22.2 The Chargers can upset the Steelers if they can run the ball well and the defense can force multiple turnovers. Assuming LT is out it will be up to Darren Sproles, all 5'6, 181 lbs of him to put up another huge 250+ all purpose yard performance against the battering, brutal Steelers defense. When Sproles has 50+ rushing yards and averages over 5.5 ypc the Chargers will 52 percent of the time, but there is just a 30 percent chance of this happening. The Steelers run defense allowed opposing RBs to just 3.3 ypc and even though Sproles is averaging 4.1 per sim, it will be tough for him to repeat his success of last week. The Chargers defense is keeping them close by sacking Ben Roethlisberger 2.5 times per simulation while keeping the Steelers RBs to under 4 ypc. If Ben Roethlisberger has at least 1 interception and the Chargers sack him 3 or more times the Chargers have a 56 percent chance of winning. When Ben has no more than 1 INT and no more than 3 sacks the Steelers are heavy 75 percent favorites.

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:24:26 -0500

Arizona @ Carolina

Average Forecasted Score: Cardinals 18.5 Panthers 29.2 The Panthers are clear favorites over the Cardinals despite Arizona running the ball and defending the run well vs Atlanta. The Cardinals may not have the option to stick with the run if they fall behind early. The duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are forecasted for over 170 rushing yards. Williams averaged 6.4 ypc vs the Cardinals in Week 8 and is right around 6.0 in simulations. If the Cardinals can stop Williams like they stopped Michael Turner and hold Williams to under 100 yards on less than 4.5 ypc their chances increase considerably from 21 percent to 35 percent. If they not only contain the Panthers running game and get 50+ yadrs from Edgerin James they pull ahead with a 52 percent chance of winning. However, there is only a 15 percent chance that James outrushes Williams. It also hurts that Anquan Boldin is hurting. He will definitely play, but it looks like he will be slowed down. He had an 80 percent chance of having at least 1 TD last week, but this week he has just a 25 percent chance. If he and Larry Fitzgerald can both pull out big plays with at least 1 TD a piece the Cardinals chances increase to just 32 percent. So the key to Arizona upsetting the Panthers is not necessarily the passing game, but rather the running game (both offensively and defensively).

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:24:26 -0500

Baltimore @ Tennessee

Average Forecasted Score: Ravens 17.8 Titans 16.8 AccuScore does not necessarily factor strongly the layoff that Tennessee has had (rest starters WK 17, Bye Week) but it does factor how the team has played over the past 4 weeks, 8 weeks, etc. The fact is Tennessee ended the season 3-3 with a pair of bad losses in meaningful games (Jets at home, at Houston). Baltimore, along with San Diego, is the hottest team in the league. The Ravens outplayed the Titans in most key areas, except for the scoreboard in Week 5. Since then, the Ravens have gotten considerably better and Titans are down. Both QBs had 2 INTs in Week 3 so look for them to be careful with the ball. Joe Flacco has just a 21 percent chance of having multiple interceptions and Kerry Collins just 25 percent. If both QBs have multiple INTs, the Ravens are still favored winning 52 percent of these simulations. The Titans have key players on both sides of the line injured and questionable. With Kevin Mawae hurting the Ravens are containing the Titans running game. Chris Johnson has just a 22 percent chance of rushing for 75+ yards. If he does have a few big plays the Titans do get the clear edge winning 73 percent of these simulations. However, if Johnson is ineffective, the Ravens chances increase to 60 percent.

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:24:26 -0500

Philadelphia @ New York

Average Forecasted Score: Eagles 20.0 Giants 21.6 Both #1 Seeds won huge games over the #2 seeds near the end of the season, but overall, stumbled down the stretch a bit. The key to this game is Brandon Jacobs not just playing well, but dominating the game. Adrian Peterson is the best 'home run hitter' in the league with the highest percentage of explosive runs for any RB averaging more than 5 carries. However, he is well below average in terms of ypc when getting hit at or around the line of scrimmage. Brandon Jacobs has the size to get 3 or 4 yards even when hit at the line and is is crucial that even if he cannot get huge 10, 20 yard carries that he get his team into 3rd and short situations by mustering a lot of 3 or 4 yard carries. When Jacobs averages over 5.5 ypc with at least 1 TD the Giants have a 72 percent chance of winning. When he is held under 5 ypc the Eagles win 50 percent of simulations. Jacobs has to dominate and not just play well. The Vikings were able to disrupt McNabb with 3 sacks and one forced fumble. The Giants have a 42 percent chance of sacking McNabb 3 or more times and they have a 65 percent chance of winning if they can sack him 3 or more times. If the Eagles can protect McNabb and he is sacked 2 times or less the Eagles pull slightly ahead winning 50.5 percent of the these simulations.

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:24:26 -0500

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